Forsyt BESS Reference:
France, Q1 2026

We are releasing Forsyt BESS Reference, a quarterly attainable-revenue publication for a reference 10 MW / 20 MWh battery asset in France. Each issue quantifies what a battery running high-quality dispatch logic could have captured in the prior month, with a full breakdown across day-ahead, intraday, FCR and aFRR.

The March 2026 figure is €173k/MW-year, up 65% from €105k/MW-year in January, driven by concurrent improvements across all three revenue sources. Revenue dispersion across strategies also widened materially in March: higher market volatility and heavy-tailed revenue opportunities pushed the spread of outcomes across strategies significantly wider.

The central reference rose from €105k/MW-year in January to €173k/MW-year in March. The revenue range widened with volatility, reflecting larger differences between feasible trading strategies.

Attainable revenue range (P10–P90) and central estimate. 10 MW / 20 MWh reference asset, France. €/MW-year.

Day-ahead averages fell from €75/MWh in January-February to €64/MWh in France in March. The Iran war pushed fuel-market risk higher without triggering a baseload shock. What changed was dispersion: daily P90-P10 spreads widened 81% in France and 127% in Germany, propagating into intraday spreads of up to €90/MWh.

• FCR capacity repriced 40% in France and 80% in Germany versus January-February. German daily averages repeatedly exceeded €20/MW/h.
• aFRR capacity peaked at €90/MW/h on 16 March. Scarcity episodes were more frequent and higher-magnitude than in prior months.
• aFRR energy remained event-driven. On 23 March, France reached a daily average of €275/MWh with a quarter-hour peak of €4,492/MWh.

Forsyt BESS Reference is produced by BenchmarkPro, our multi-simulation dispatch and benchmarking platform. BenchmarkPro runs thousands of dispatch scenarios against actual historical market data, applies asset-specific physical constraints, and extracts a rigorous attainable revenue estimate from the resulting distribution.

• Full market replay across day-ahead, intraday, FCR and aFRR in a single coherent optimisation.
• 15-minute trading logic with strict respect of SoC, power, headroom and efficiency constraints.
• Multi-simulation framing to produce a revenue range under the same market month across feasible dispatch paths.
• Asset-specific depth when applied to a real portfolio, with over 50 configurable technical and commercial parameters.

The figures in this note represent what a real asset would have captured in the market conditions that occurred. This is the same engine powering our client mandates. Forsyt BESS Reference makes the output public, on a reference asset, every month.